TESS Scorecard
Sentiment is a comprehensive measure of how people and the markets interpret the information and events occurring every day; it’s the expression of the mood and psychology that prevails, and changes in attitudes typically must precede changes in behavior.

TrendPointers has set targets that both positive and negative sentiment must reach concurrently and then sustain for at least 3 to 4 periods to indicate the beginning of a shift in confidence or recovery. (The sentiment scale also includes an “uncertain” sentiment indicator to balance to 100%).Each biweekly report provides detailed trend charts for all issues monitored, and the TESS Scorecard summarizes the most recent data.

Statistical tests were conducted for TrendPointers business sentiment against key economic indicators, up to 20 weeks in advance of official economic reports. PreCast Signals consistently show extraordinarily high R squared values as a leading indicator of eventual economic behavior.

Retail Sales are considered a core indicator of changing consumer demand. The shifts in sentiment that was the precursor to the eventual declines were identified 12 months in advance -the migration to “uncertainty” kept retail sales alive until the evidence was reality.To be more confident about retail sales we need to see a sustained and upward trend for several periods in a row.

Unemployment is certainly one of the most-watched indicators in today’s economy. Long before unemployment turned up and crossed the 5% threshold, it’s clear there were significant sentiment relevant discussions taking place that could have provided the alerts for investigating other factors and providing heightened sense of watchfulness when planning economic decisions.